Offense- LSU: The Tigers don't feature a true playmaker on this side of the ball. With all due respect to WR Rueben Randle, there is not enough consistent play at QB to consider him among the elite playmakers in college football. For the better part of the season, the Tigers have lived off of a big play by their special teams or defense in order to set up short fields for the offense. Jordan Jefferson has once again firmly entrenched himself as the starter, but if LSU gets down early can he make the necessary throws to get them back in the game? Les Miles won't be afraid to go to Jarrett Lee off the bench if Jefferson struggles early. As for the rest of the offense, Spencer Ware and Michael Ford are a pair of 700-yard rushers who could have a hard time finding holes in an Alabama defense that held this unit to 9 points in the 1st meeting and kept them out of the end zone. However, an interesting thing to watch could be that LSU may try an option look early on to try to gain some yards on the ground. Its worth nothing that the Tide allowed 302 yards on the ground to Georgia Southern, an FCS school who runs triple option. The success of the triple option could turn out to be an X-factor in this game.
Alabama: The Tide offense revolves around Trent Richardson, a Heisman finalist and surefire first round pick in April. Richardson, who ran for 1,583 yards and 20 TDs on the season was largely kept in check during the first meeting, running for just 89 yards on 23 carries. The biggest question for this unit remains how will A.J. McCarron fare against a secondary that features 2 All-Americans in Tyrann Mathieu and Morris Claiborne at corner? Marquis Maze is a future NFL receiver, but can he find space working against Claiborne? Alabama will have to have some success through the air in order to win this game. As talented as Trent Richardson is, he can't do everything himself, McCarron will need to complete some key passes on 3rd and long and late in the game. He can no longer be just an effective game manager, which has been the case for most of the season. Only problem is, if Maze cannot utilize his 4.4 speed, who do the Tide throw to? Richardson is the 2nd-leading receiver on this team with 27 catches and LSU won't be afraid to stack 8 guys in the box on some downs and focus most of their attention on #3. Someone, such as Brad Smelley, the senior TE may be the X-factor for this offense.
EDGE: Alabama has the slight advantage in this case, thanks to Trent Richardson.
Defense- LSU: It all starts in the secondary where Tyrann Mathieu, Morris Claiborne, Brandon Taylor and Eric Reid will all play on Sundays in the near future. Without a doubt, this is the best secondary in the nation and has a chance to completely shut down an inconsistent Alabama passing attack. As previously mentioned, the main focus of this defense will be Trent Richardson, who has excelled on this stage before, as a freshman in the National title game against Texas when he ran for 109 yards and 2 scores. John Chavis, the defensive coordinator won't be afraid to dial up some blitzes in an attempt to rattle McCarron. This unit recorded 37 sacks on the season, led by Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo, who had 9 and 8 sacks, respectively. As a whole, the Tigers allowed an average of just 10.5 points per game, good enough for 2nd in the nation. They already have the blueprint of how to stop the Alabama offense, the hardest part now is repeating the success from the 1st meeting when they held the Tide out of the end zone.
Alabama: As good as the LSU defense has been at points this season, Alabama's may be even better. Dont'a Hightower and Courtney Upshaw lead a unit that allowed just 8.8 points per game this season. The unit can absolutely fly around the field and will give the LSU offense everything it can handle. They held the Tigers offense to just 239 yards in the 1st meeting, including a paltry 91 through the air. This unit has been the backbone of the team all season and certainly played a large part in getting them to this point. If they can shut down the backfield duo of Ware and Ford and keep the LSU offense off the board early it will force LSU's 109th ranked passing game to come up big, something it really hasn't been asked to do this season. Kirby Smart, the defensive coordinator will match his counterpart in terms of dialing up blitzes and attempting to force the other's QB into potentially game-changing mistakes.
EDGE: Even, these are the top 2 defenses in the nation, bar none.
Special Teams: LSU- Tyrann Mathieu should not and will not get a chance to return a punt in this game. He has been the engine that has jumpstarted LSU at so many points this season, especially with a big punt return, but he won't be able to do that in this game. If this turns into a battle of field position, give the edge to the Tigers and their punter, Brad Wing. Wing averaged 44.1 yards per boot and landed 23 punts inside the 20-yard line, including 4 of 6 in the 1st meeting of these 2 teams. He has the ability to pin Alabama deep in their own territory and as discussed before, the Tide offense doesn't typically go on long drives. As for the all important position of kicker, Drew Alleman has been Mr. Consistent for LSU, connecting on 16 of 18 field goal tries. He nailed all 3 of his attempts in the 1st game and Les Miles trusts him in crunch time.
Alabama: That whole idea of trusting your kicker doesn't exactly apply to Nick Saban and Alabama. Everyone knows the stories of Cade Foster and Jeremy Shelley who combined to miss 4 field goals in the 1st meeting, something that would end up costing the Tide the game. Let's just say, they cannot do that again if Alabama plans on hoisting the crystal trophy tonight. When it comes to punting, Cody Mandell is fine, but nothing special. He averaged a pedestrian 38.9 yards per kick, but is at least serviceable. Marquis Maze mans the punt return for Alabama returned 1 punt for a touchdown this season. However, he may find it difficult to find space against an LSU punt coverage team that allowed just 0.4 yards per return.
EDGE: LSU, they are better in all 3 aspects of special teams.
Coaches: LSU: Les Miles is on his way to being considered one of the greatest of all-time. Miles is an excellent recruiter who routinely gets the most of the talent he has to work with. Talent doesn't always ensure winning, given the struggles at Florida and Ohio St. this year. He is nicknamed "The Mad Hatter" and will not be afraid to pull out all the stops to defeat Alabama. Watch for LSU to mix in a few trick plays, here and there just to keep the Tide defense on their toes.
Alabama: Nick Saban is built more in the mold of a quiet head coach who doesn't have much of a penchant for the trick plays and bold decisions. He is often called the Bill Belichick of college football and is widely considered the gold standard of head coaches at this level. Alabama churns out pro prospects each and every year, in large part thanks to Saban who provides an excellent training ground for these players. If Alabama wins tonight, it will be their 2nd national title in 3 years and Saban will be considered the mastermind behind what many would call a mini-dynasty of sorts.
EDGE: Even, both coaches are extremely successful with entirely different approaches to the game.
Final Prediction: LSU 20-17, the Special Teams unit of the Tigers is what will make a difference in this game. Both offenses will struggle to get in the end zone and the defenses are essentially even, but in the end, I give the edge to LSU based on their kicking game.
No comments:
Post a Comment