Saturday, February 4, 2012

Super Bowl XLVI Prediction

Here is my breakdown, position-by-position for Sunday's big game. After 2 long weeks of waiting, it is finally time for the rematch between the Patriots and Giants. Without further ado, let's get to the breakdown of the game.

Quarterbacks: This one is pretty simple, Tom Brady vs. Eli Manning. Both have been here before and know how to play in the spotlight. Brady is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time, with this being his 5th trip to the Super Bowl and if Eli continues to play like he did this year, he is well on his way to being elite. Both of them will have their moments in this game and whichever one plays better in crunch time could be what decides the outcome of this game. EDGE: Patriots, Brady has been better for far longer. Simple as that.

Running Backs: Yes, there are actually running backs in this game. It seems as if the likes of Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have gotten zero coverage leading up to the game due to all of the other big storylines. However, the ground attacks for each team could turn out to play a huge role in the game. The Pats will look to use the run to open up the pass, especially if Brady is constantly being hounded by the pass rush of the Giants. Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead and rookie Stevan Ridley have had flashes of success and will try to get going early on Sunday to make life easier for Brady and the rest of the offense. As for the Giants, Bradshaw and Jacobs have split carries pretty much all season and into the playoffs. Both have been solid and could find space to work with against a mediocre front 7 of the Patriots. EDGE: Giants, the Pats have more depth, but the Giants have more talented backs.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: It's all about Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham for the Giants, with Jake Ballard getting throws from time to time. Manning will look to Nicks and Cruz the majority of the time, but could use the potential mismatch on Manningham to his advantage. The much-maligned Patriots secondary has been under fire all year, but has improved as of late and played well against the Broncos and Ravens with Sterling Moore saving the season with his strip of the ball from Lee Evans in the end zone. Nicks and Cruz will each probably hit on at least one big play, but the Patriots have the weapons to match that. Wes Welker will be his usual dynamic self in the slot and Brady also won't be afraid to call Deion Branch's number a few times as well. Mix in the best 1-2 punch of tight ends in the NFL, despite the fact Rob Gronkowski may not be 100%. He may not be as effective as usual, but Hernandez should find space to work with against an average at best Giants linebacking corps and Gronk will still find a way to make some plays. He is one tough kid who will barely even feel the pain in his ankle once the adrenaline starts to set in. EDGE: Even, the Patriots make up for the Giants' edge in the receiving corps with the lethal combination of Gronk and Hernandez.

Offensive Line: This should play a huge role in the game, especially on the Patriots side. Their line desperately needs to protect Tom Brady and give him time to throw.That was the biggest downfall in the 2007 game, Brady was constantly pressured all night and barely had time to throw at all. The Giants front line will come after him just as fiercely this time around. As for the Giants, Eli Manning was battered and bruised all night long against the 49ers and the O-line must do a better job of protecting their signal caller. The Patriots have a few guys, namely Mark Anderson and Rob Ninkovich who can apply constant pressure to the QB and attempt to force him to make some mistakes. EDGE: Patriots, Brian Waters, Logan Mankins and Matt Light make the difference over a mediocre Giants unit.

Defensive Line: Welcome to the Giants' specialty. Big Blue feeds off of their front line, led by Osi Umenyiora, Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck. Those three have the ability to make a difference in this game if they can get to Brady. They have been at the forefront of a number of stories during Media week and have not exactly shied away from the cameras, as evidenced by the feud between Umenyiora and Brady's blindside protector, Matt Light. As for the Patriots, Vince Wilfork is playing some of the best football of his career right now while Mark Anderson and Brandon Deaderick have both played well in the playoffs thus far. Wilfork was a one-man wrecking crew in the Ravens backfield during the AFC Championship game and will look to do the same thing again on Sunday. EDGE: Giants, their pass rush is one of the best in the league.

Linebackers: Unlike a number of the other key areas in this matchup, neither team's linebacking corps particularly stands out. Although Brandon Spikes and Rob Ninkovich have played extremely well for the Pats in the playoffs, including a key interception by Spikes in the AFC Championship game. Ninkovich has looked unstoppable at times coming off the edge and should have few problems doing the same against the Giants. As for the Giants, Michael Boley, Chase Blackburn and Mathias Kiwanuka represent nothing more than an average group. Kiwanuka is the best pass rusher of the bunch and could line up at defensive end in certain packages on Sunday. Meanwhile, Blackburn is a special teams ace, filling in for the injured Jonathan Goff who missed the entire season with an Achilles injury. EDGE: Patriots, they have the better pure talent and the solid play of Spikes and Ninkovich in addition to the steady Jerod Mayo puts them over the Giants linebackers.

Secondary: Both teams feature oft-criticized secondaries who have been through more than their fair share of ups and downs over the course of the season. The Patriots battled injuries all season long to key secondary guys, forcing them to play Julian Edelman there at various points throughout the 2nd half of the campaign. Devin McCourty and Pat Chung each missed games with injuries, but have rebounded nicely to have a strong finish to the year. That is where the going gets rough, James Ihedigbo is an average safety at best, one who got beat in coverage more than once against the Ravens. Meanwhile, Kyle Arrington, despite leading the league in interceptions, is not great in coverage and will have his hands full against Nicks, Cruz and Manningham on Sunday. We also can't talk about the Pats secondary without mentioning Sterling Moore who saved the season and has received more and more playing time from Coach Bill Belichick. As for the Giants, their secondary, as previously mentioned has been up and down all year, led by the outspoken Antrel Rolle who always seems to have something to say to the media. Corey Webster and Aaron Ross are comparable to McCourty and Arrington while Kenny Phillips and Rolle are decent at safety. EDGE: Patriots, Chung is the best player in either secondary right now which gives New England the slight advantage.

Special Teams: Let's start with the kickers for each team, ones who could find the game in their hands on Sunday night. Stephen Gostkowski, while having very few chances at clutch kicks over the course of his career has always been solid and will not be afraid of the spotlight if called upon Sunday night. As for the Giants, Lawrence Tynes is not necessarily automatic from beyond about 40 yards, but remains a decent option for New York. He has made a number of clutch kicks before, most recently against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. When it comes to the punters, Zoltan Mesko and Steve Weatherford each have booming legs and matching ability to pin the other team deep in their own end of the field. Field position might not play a huge role with an elite QB on each sideline, but nobody wants to start every drive from their own 10-yard line so you never can tell. For the return specialists, Danny Woodhead, Wes Welker, Will Blackmon and Jerel Jernigan are serviceable, but none of them are a particularly huge threat to break one for a touchdown. EDGE: Giants, these are extremely similar units, but Tynes with his number of clutch kicks gives New York the slight edge..

Head Coaches: Bill Belichick will go down as one of the greatest head coaches in NFL history. He is making his 5th trip to the Super Bowl and always finds a way to have continued success from year to year. He says very little, but gets the job done and uses any smack talk from opposing teams as motivation for the Patriots to feed off of. Giving him two weeks to prepare for any opponent is a scary thought as he is one of the true masterminds in the NFL. For the Giants, Tom Coughlin is similar in some ways in terms of mannerisms and has his team making their 2nd Super Bowl appearance in 5 years, despite having fans call for his head seemingly every year. He has battled through tons of adversity with this team and knows how to be a successful head coach in the league. EDGE: Patriots, Belichick is one of the all-time greats and has had success for much longer.

Prediction: It's a shame these teams don't play more than once every 4 years because they always seem to produce classics. This one should be no different from the previous games and will be decided on the final possession. I'm giving the slight edge to the Patriots, Belichick and Brady won't be defeated by the same opponent twice on the same exact stage. Gostkowski kicks the game winner and the Patriots take home the title in memory of Myra Kraft. Patriots 24, Giants 21.

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